Down and out in Paris and London
The Lionesses, France and home (dis)advantage
England’s Lionesses surfed a tidal wave of expectation to win the Euros - a wave that would have engulfed athletes with lesser mental resilience, however great their physical and technical qualities. Who knows whether they would have triumphed had the tournament been overseas? And who cares? It was on English soil with all the burdens of hope and scrutiny that this entails. Home advantage can just as easily be home disadvantage.
Academics studying the effects of behind-closed-doors football during the Covid pandemic have concluded that home advantage is dampened (but not eradicated) in the absence of a crowd. But analysis of the top European mens leagues is, of necessity, scrutinising players who - whether through natural selection or training - are able to feed off their own supporters’ energy rather than be crushed by it. The record crowd at Wembley on Sunday represented a rare and challenging environment for the players, not simply a scaling up of their usual matchday experience.
“Pre-COVID, teams won on average 0.39 points per game more at home than away, but this home advantage was almost halved in the period without the audience; such that the teams won only 0.22 points more at home than away.” From a study of 4,844 games across Europe by McCarrick, Bilalic, Neave and Wolfson. Read here
Ten years ago I sat on a tube train after a midweek athletics session at the London Olympics in which leading British medal hopes had fizzled out. Only days after the triple gold triumph of Super Saturday, as chair of UK Athletics I found myself texting our CEO to say that if Mo Farah didn’t win the 5,000m at the weekend then we might have to fall on our swords. Too many of our hopefuls weren’t rising to the occasion. I was surrounded in the carriage by exuberant spectators who had enjoyed a fantastic evening of sport, and who were oblivious to the microcosmic part each was playing in weighing down their favourites with expectation.
Our head coach had been alive to the risks of home hoopla and had taken the GB athletics team to Portugal for its pre-Games holding camp rather than the Aldershot base preferred by the British Olympic Association. Not only was the weather warmer but the media spotlight was dimmer. It all came good in the end, Britain finishing third in the athletics medal table and fifth in the placing table. But in truth, I sensed little home advantage at the time and many drawbacks with hindsight.
Two years out from Paris 2024, the usual pre-Olympics scare stories are doing the rounds - about budgets, security and general preparedness. I’ve no doubt all will be right on the night, albeit with the time-honoured overspend. France, though, should be very worried about its chances in the sport itself. The nation’s athletes failed in Tokyo to deliver the upswing in medal success enjoyed by future hosts in the preceding Games. And with one year fewer between Olympics due to Covid, time is fast evaporating in which to engineer an improvement.
The history of Britain’s successful lottery-funded investment in Olympic and Paralympic sport has been well trawled. It is not unique, being inspired by Australia’s approach to Sydney 2000. The effect can be seen in the chart below, and contrasts starkly with France’s slide in medals won in Tokyo to a level not seen since Barcelona 1992.
France’s recent record in the marquee sports should be of particular concern. It won only four medals in athletics, cycling and swimming combined last year. For a nation of cyclists, the long term decline in success on two wheels must be especially galling (chart below).
Of course, each country has its own idea of what might constitute a marquee event, based in large part on its own medal history. Yes, France traditionally excels at handball, which will doubtless loom large in its media narrative in the summer of 2024. But almost a fifth of the nation’s medals in the past three Games have come in judo. Not to decry the sport, but President Macron will want to be seen with French medallists in more places than just the dojo.
You can’t beat the Baroness
In the corner of my TV, squeezed into the melee surrounding the Lionesses on the victory platform, I briefly caught a glimpse of Baroness Sue Campbell, director of women’s football at the FA. This was no John Terry 2012 Champions League final moment, when the suspended Chelsea captain risibly stripped from suit into kit to join the trophy celebrations. Campbell has been the ultimate architect of England women’s success and deserves all the plaudits coming her way, rightfully taking her place on the top step.
It was Campbell too who was the public face of UK Sport’s ‘no compromise’ pursuit of Olympic and Paralympic medals leading up to London 2012. In all my encounters with her at the time I found her to be empathetic, charming but steely in the resolve that underlay UKS’s highly targeted investment strategy.
Last week, the designer of that strategy, Peter Keen, gave a remarkable interview to Owen Slot of The Times in which he expressed regrets. His choice of interviewer was interesting in itself, as Slot co-authored what was in effect an officially sanctioned book about UK Sport’s high performance model back in 2017, The Talent Lab.
“Recently I have been asked to sum up how I feel about what has been achieved during the National Lottery-funded era of British global sporting success. The conclusion I have come to is I would happily trade it all — the medals, the records, the Super Saturdays, the gongs — for a thriving, safe and inclusive national competitive sport system.” Peter Keen in The Times. Read here
Keen says he declined to appear in last year’s BBC Gold Rush series looking back at the London Games. (I did take part, as one of the chosen naysayers about UKS’s highly focused approach). He has concluded that sporting systems must be designed to be sustainable. I’ve no idea how Sue Campbell looks back on the road to 2012 now, but I’ve no doubt that she and her colleagues are focused on ensuring that female football in England grows and strengthens from the grassroots up. Much to be excited about, but much still to do.
And if you live in South London: Palace for Life women and girls football
Trumped up for the Cup
The fight for the soul of golf seems to be coalescing around access to the Ryder Cup for the LIV rebels. If you were Greg Norman and his Saudi backers, might you right now be contemplating the creation of a direct rival competition if your contracted players are blocked from the sport’s highest profile event? USA v Rest of the World rather than Europe perhaps. Open to all, not just LIV contracted golfers. The Donald Cup maybe. Stranger things have happened, have they not…?
Go Guernsey!
Just over half way through the Commonwealth Games and Guernsey has its first medal since 1994 (see last week’s Sport inc.). Silver for Lucy Beere in the lawn bowls singles. Story here
Thought provoking, as ever, Ed.
I’ve met Sue on several occasions and she is unquestionably the greatest sports leader of her age … and a truly inspirational speaker. Would she could get her hands on the Premier League and men’s football across the game too!
On home crowds …. those here at Alexander Stadium for The Games have lifted every session. Enthusiastic and supportive of every athlete. The atmosphere has been fantastic.
… and a last word on crowds …. having had the privilege of being Competition Director for Athletics in 2012, I’m often asked what my greatest moment was during the Olympics. I’m torn between a young woman from Sheffield, who I nurtured through her schooldays, crossing the line as Olympic Champion in the Heptathlon …. and a sixty-thousand crowd, to a man, booing George Osborne when he made a presentation! (Though on reflection that might have been at the BUCS Championships test event where every Cabinet minister was trotted out.)